Opec’s next battle ground: Choosing its new top official

BloombergLondonDeciding how much crude to pump isn’t the only dispute splitting the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The group is also divided over who will be its next top official.As it became clear last week in Vienna that a push for oil production cuts was failing, ministers from Venezuela, Algeria, Iran and Ecuador huddled around Opec’s conference table and tried a different tack in their quest to boost crude prices.It was time, they argued, to find a new secretary-general to replace Abdalla El-Badri, according to three delegates who asked not to be identified because the discussions were private. The four countries want to pick someone who will press their case that Opec’s biggest members should cut production, the delegates said.The dispute over the secretary-general position reflects the clash within Opec over whether to keep pumping to pressure rivals including US shale producers, a strategy that has driven oil prices to six-year lows. Richer members led by Saudi Arabia prevailed again at the December 4 meeting as the group endorsed current production levels. However, the four price hawks succeeded in limiting El-Badri’s tenure to an additional seven months, hoping to appoint a replacement at the next meeting in June.“El-Badri can take a balanced view” about Opec’s objectives, rather than exclusively favouring higher oil prices, said John Hall, chairman of consultant Alfa Energy, who has worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years. “That can go against him as far as the hawks are concerned.”Opec surprised markets by effectively abandoning its 30mn-bpd output target last week and endorsing current production of about 31.5mn, pushing prices to the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2009. Yet the group actually spent just as much time in Vienna discussing the secretary-general, who oversees meetings and serves as the organisation’s public face, two of the delegates said. El-Badri declined to comment on the matter.The 75-year-old native of Libya has steered the organisation for nine years, making him its longest-serving top official. In addition to serving two terms of three years each - the maximum allowed in Opec’s statute - his tenure has been extended by three years to give the group extra time to choose his replacement.El-Badri oversaw a deal to make record production cuts that helped halt a price slump during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. When an Opec meeting ended in acrimony in June 2011 amid disagreements over whether to increase production quotas, El-Badri helped reconcile differences between members. Six months later the group agreed a new 30mn-barrel target that proved to be its most enduring.The organisation has been extending El-Badri’s tenure since 2012 as disputes among Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq prevented them from settling on candidates each of the nations had proposed. The disagreement over choosing a successor flared again at the December 4 meeting as the slump in oil prices heightened tensions over the direction of Opec policy.In his role as Opec’s principal representative to the public, El-Badri has defended the group’s current strategy, saying in November that global markets will rebalance next year as supplies outside the group slow in response to lower prices. He has also supported the idea that Opec could cooperate with nations outside the group on cuts to reduce the oversupply, a position supported by both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.El-Badri played an important role in the intense discussions inside Opec’s Vienna headquarters on December 4, presenting outlooks for the oil market that represented different output levels favoured by the two opposing camps, one of the delegates said. When the issue of his own future came up, he left the small conference room to let ministers discuss the matter in private, according to two delegates.Among the proposals discussed were changing Opec’s selection process to broaden the pool of candidates. The potential for Indonesia, returning to the group after a seven- year absence, to put forward a neutral candidate acceptable to all members could also be a solution. The Asian country has said it has yet to nominate anyone.With no new names proposed, ministers compromised by extending El-Badri’s tenure once again, but Venezuela, Algeria, Iran and Ecuador insisted he be designated acting secretary- general. Unlike the previous extension to El-Badri’s term in November 2014, the statement last week specified that his term will expire in July when a replacement “will be elected.”Even if the price hawks do secure a new secretary-general, it’s unlikely to help them reverse the direction of the group’s policy, according to Alfa Energy’s Hall. The role is more about representing the organisation, while strategy will continue to be shaped by Opec’s most powerful members, he said.