‘Above-normal temperatures’ likely upto July

It will be hotter than usual in Qatar this month as well in June and July, the weather office has said.Citing latest seasonal forecasts, the Qatar Met department tweeted yesterday that “above-normal temperatures were likely from May to July”. The climate outlook for these three months, which is available on the Met department’s website (http://www.qweather.gov.qa/climateoutlook.aspx), provides details of the expected conditions in the GCC region and Qatar. The May temperatures are likely to be above normal across the GCC region along with a probability of over 50% of being above average across Qatar, according to probabilistic multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation’s lead centres (WMOLC). Not just in May, but the forecasts also indicate the probability of temperatures to be above normal for the season, including the months of June and July.Probabilistic MME seasonal forecasts from other climate centres such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society also show that the temperature is expected to be higher than usual in the Middle East and GCC countries, including a more than 70% probability of above-normal temperatures in Qatar, according to the outlook. Two types of forecast products are generated by climate centres – probabilistic and deterministic.Under the probabilistic forecast system, seasonal climate anomalies are predicted to be in one of three categories - below normal, normal and above normal - and the probability of predicted values falling in these categories is estimated. On the other hand, under the deterministic forecast system, the magnitude of anomalies is estimated for the ensuing month and season using different statistical techniques. This outlook uses the forecasts estimated based on a simple ensemble mean after correcting the biases in each of the participating models, the Met department has clarified.According to deterministic MME forecasts, above-normal temperature conditions will prevail in the GCC countries in May and the temperature anomalies for Qatar are expected to be above normal in the range of 0.25C to 0.5C this month. Such conditions are likely to persist in the next two months as well. Forecasts from other climate centres are generally in agreement with the WMOLC outlook for Qatar and the GCC, it is observed.Most of the models from WMOLC also indicate near-normal precipitation in May and these conditions are likely to continue through the season as a whole over Qatar and adjoining regions. Very little rainfall is expected in Qatar this season.The monthly mean, minimum and maximum temperatures recorded in Doha in April were 27.5C, 23.5C and 32.2C, respectively. These involved deviations of 0.9C, 1.6C and -0.6C from their respective long-term climatological values, the Met department has said.Hot day,  poor visibility forecast for todayA hot day across the country as well as poor visibility in some offshore areas by night, due to foggy conditions, are expected today, the Qatar Met department has said. In a tweet yesterday afternoon, the weather office said the temperature had reached 41C in Turayna and 40C in Al Sheehaniya, while ranging between 34C and 39C in other parts of the country. Today’s forecast says it will be hot during the day and slightly dusty conditions are also expected in some places at times. Some offshore areas will see misty to foggy conditions by night along with clouds, according to the weather report.  A maximum temperature of 40C is expected in Dukhan and Abu Samra today, while Doha and Al Khor will see a high of 39C, followed by Messaied, Wakrah and Ruwais at 38C.