As the global vaccine rollout continues for almost all nations on earth, international and domestic travel demand showed marginal improvements in May 2021 compared to the prior month, IATA data has revealed — but we’re still a very long way from any real sense of recovery for a global aviation sector shattered by the pandemic, and the restrictions that remain.
Total demand for air travel in May 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) was down 62.7% compared to May 2019 — a gain over the 65.2% decline recorded in April 2021 versus April 2019.
International passenger demand in May was 85.1% below May 2019, a small step-up from the 87.2% decline recorded in April 2021 versus two years ago. All regions except for Asia-Pacific contributed to this modest improvement.
Total domestic demand was down 23.9% versus pre-crisis levels (May 2019), slightly improved over April 2021, when domestic traffic was down 25.5% versus the 2019 period.
China and Russia traffic continue to be in in positive growth territory compared to pre-Covid-19 levels, while India and Japan saw significant deterioration amid new variants and outbreaks.
“We are starting to see positive developments, with some international markets opening to vaccinated travellers.
The Northern Hemisphere summer travel season is now fully arrived. And it is disappointing that more governments are not moving more rapidly to use data to drive border opening strategies that would help revive tourism jobs and reunite families,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Here in the Middle East, airlines experienced an 81.3% demand drop in May compared to May 2019, slightly bettering the 82.9% decrease in April, versus the same month in 2019. Capacity declined 63.7%, and load factor fell 35.3 percentage points to 37.7%.
Over in Europe, European carriers’ May international traffic declined 84.7% versus May 2019, improved from the 87.7% decrease in April compared to the same month in 2019. Capacity dropped 75.7% and load factor fell 31.3 percentage points to 52.9%.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their May international traffic fall 94.3% compared to May 2019, fractionally worse than the 94.2% drop registered in April 2021 versus April 2019. The region experienced the steepest traffic declines for a tenth consecutive month. Capacity was down 86.4% and the load factor sank 45.5 percentage points to 33.2%, the lowest among regions.
India – usually boasting one of the busiest domestic air travel markets in the world – saw its domestic traffic fall 71.0% in May compared to May 2019 amid the emergence of the new and more contagious “Delta” variant. This compared to a 42% decline registered in April versus the same month two years ago.
North American carriers’ May demand fell 74.4% compared to the 2019 period, an improvement over the 77.6% decline in April versus two years ago.
Capacity sagged 58.5%, and load factor dropped 32.2 percentage points to 51.7%.
Latin American airlines saw a 75.1% demand drop in May, compared to the same month in 2019, notably improved over the 80.9% decline in April compared to April 2019. May capacity was down 69.9% and load factor decreased 14.6 percentage points to 69.5%, which was the highest load factor among the regions for the eighth consecutive month.
African airlines’ traffic fell 71.4% in May versus May two years ago, a gain from the 75.6% decline in April compared to April 2019. May capacity declined 61.8% versus May 2019, and load factor dropped 16.9 percentage points to 50.2%.
“Too many governments continue to act as if the only tool in their anti-Covid-19 arsenal is a blanket border closure or an arrival quarantine. In fact, research from leading medical organisations around the globe confirms that vaccinated travellers pose very little risk to the local population,” said Willie Walsh.
Walsh, the head of global airline body, said he was cautiously optimistic about demand for travel in the second half of the year, adding that he expects transatlantic flying between key markets – such as between Britain and the United States – to re-open in the coming weeks.
Major airlines including American Airlines, British Airways, Delta Air Lines and Virgin Atlantic have for months been pushing the US and UK governments to re-open travel between the two countries citing the pair’s successful vaccination programmes. Heathrow Airport, Britain’s hub airport, continues to call for the important market to reopen following an extensive ban.
“What we’re seeing is a shift in the consumer attitudes over time and I think that’s going to accelerate now, as people become more frustrated at the pace at which governments are moving,” he said.
* The author is an aviation analyst. Twitter handle: @AlexInAir
