Australia has been off-limits to almost all other countries for the duration of the ongoing pandemic. Slamming its borders tightly closed in early 2020, the country has been able to prevent Covid-19 catastrophe and was – until recently – largely successful in maintaining a ‘zero Covid’ nation. But Australia, currently with most of its population in brief lockdowns amid a rise in cases & outbreaks, is looking ahead at reconnecting with the rest of the world.
National airline Qantas say that on current projections, Australia is expected to reach National Cabinet’s ‘Phase C’ vaccination threshold of 80% in December 2021, which would trigger the gradual reopening of international borders.
Similarly, key markets like the UK, North America and parts of Asia have high and increasing levels of vaccination.
The airline says makes them highly likely to be classed as low risk countries for vaccinated travellers to visit and return from under reduced quarantine requirements, pending decisions by the Australian Government and entry policies of other countries.
From mid-December 2021, flights would start from Australia to Covid-safe destinations, which are likely to include Singapore, the United States, Japan, United Kingdom and Canada using Boeing 787s, Airbus A330s, and 737s and A320s for services to Fiji. Flights between Australia and New Zealand will be on sale for travel from mid-December 2021 on the assumption some or all parts of the two-way bubble will restart.
Qantas’ ability to fly non-stop between Australia and London dazzled the aviation sector just a couple of years before the pandemic hit. But the airline says the route is expected to be in even higher demand post-Covid. The airline is investigating using Darwin as a transit point, which has been Qantas’ main entry for repatriation flights, as an alternative (or in addition) to its existing Perth hub given “conservative border policies” in Western Australia.
Australia’s national airline is an A380 operator, but unlike most airlines, Qantas intend on returning the superjumbo to the skies. The airline expects five A380s will return to service ahead of schedule. These would fly between Sydney and LA from July 2022, and between Sydney and London (via Singapore) from November 2022. Qantas says the A380s work well
on these long-haul routes when there’s sufficient demand, and the high vaccination rates in both markets would underpin this. In total, 10 of Qantas’ A380s with upgraded interiors are expected to return to service by early 2024, with timing dependent on how quickly the market recovers. Two A380s will be retired.
Qantas will extend the range of its A330-200 aircraft to operate some trans-Pacific routes such as Brisbane-Los Angeles and Brisbane-San Francisco. This involves some technical upgrades that are now being finalised with Airbus.
The airlines’ flights to Hong Kong are set to restart in February and the rest of the Qantas and Jetstar international network is planned to open up from April 2022, with capacity increasing gradually.
Qantas also acknowledged that it will take delivery of three 787-9s (new aircraft that have been in storage with Boeing) during FY23 to operate additional flights to key markets as demand increases.
Qantas Group CEO Alan Joyce said: “The prospect of flying overseas might feel a long way off, especially with New South Wales and Victoria in lockdown, but the current pace of the vaccine rollout means we should have a lot more freedom in a few months’ time.
“It’s obviously up to government exactly how and when our international borders re-open, but with Australia on track to meet the 80% trigger agreed by National Cabinet by the end of the year, we need to plan ahead for what is a complex restart process.
“There’s a lot of work that needs to happen, including training for our people and carefully bringing aircraft back into service. We’re also working to integrate the IATA travel pass into our systems to help our customers prove their vaccine status and cross borders”.
But Qantas’ ambitious international restart plans have been slammed as “far too optimistic” with many feeling that, amid Australia’s tight border policy, a 2021 restart simply won’t happen.
“We can adjust our plans if the circumstances change, which we’ve already had to do several times during this pandemic. Some people might say we’re being too optimistic, but based on the pace of the vaccine rollout, this is within reach, and we want to make sure we’re ready,” added Joyce.
* The author is an aviation analyst. Twitter handle: @AlexInAir
Alex Macheras
