Pilots shortage may weigh heavily on global airline recovery

After being battered and thrust into a crisis by Covid-19, the global aviation industry is slowly emerging from the worst of the pandemic, but facing a likely challenge of pilot shortage.A major question facing the aviation industry now, according to industry experts, is when demand will actually return.For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond, noted researcher OliverWyman. For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilisation rather than passengers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76% of pre-Covid levels.In recent years, airlines have provided a more direct path to the cockpit for new pilots, expanding cadet training programmes and providing financing. With Covid, many of the airline pipeline levers have come under pressure. Faced with mounting costs and a pilot surplus, cadet programmes are being trimmed. Some of the banks that have supported the financing seem to be reconsidering the risk profile of a new pilot cadet. Finally, the attraction of a stable and lucrative career path now looks much less secure.“These trends have created a supply shock. Pilot candidates will think twice about entering such a cyclical industry. Many furloughed pilots will return, but some may pursue other opportunities. Finally, airlines in some regions have relied heavily on early retirements to reduce costs, which will permanently decrease the supply,” says OliverWyman.The most important question is not whether a pilot shortage will reemerge, but when it will occur and how large the gap will be between supply and demand. Based on a modest recovery scenario, OliverWyman believes a global pilot shortage will emerge in certain regions no later than 2023 and most probably before. However, with a more rapid recovery and greater supply shocks, this could be felt as early as late this year. Regarding magnitude, in its most likely scenarios, there is a global gap of 34,000 pilots by 2025. This could be as high as 50,000 in the most extreme scenarios. Eventually, the impact of furloughs, retirements, and defections will create very real challenges for even some of the biggest carriers around the world. In an outlook, global aerospace giant Boeing said as the commercial aviation industry navigates an uneven global recovery from the recent market downturn caused by Covid-19, effective training and an adequate supply of personnel remain critical to maintaining the health, safety and prosperity of the aviation ecosystem.Long-term demand for newly qualified aviation personnel remains strong, as 612,000 new pilots, 626,000 new maintenance technicians and 886,000 new cabin crew members are needed to fly and maintain the global commercial fleet until 2040.Meeting projected pilot, aircraft mechanic and flight attendant demand is wholly dependent on industry’s investment in a steady pipeline of newly qualified personnel to replace those who have left or will soon exit the industry through mandatory retirement, early retirement, recent layoffs and furloughs, and ongoing attrition. According to Boeing, the global aviation industry will need to keep a sharp focus and engage in collective efforts to build a robust, diverse talent pipeline through more educational outreach and recruitment, development of new pathways to aviation careers, investment in early-career learning opportunities, and deployment and adoption of more efficient learning methods. Opportunity for aspiring aviators will abound while operators will face stiff competition in recruiting and retaining top tier talent.Airlines are going to continue to buy, modernise their fleets, and as they do that, they are certainly going to require pilots. Many airlines are aggressively trying to rehire pilots, as well as cabin crew and ground staff, but that has not been a simple process, and some jobs are left unfilled. This is because careers in the industry no longer look as secure as before. A situation made worse by the Covid-19 pandemic.Industry analysts say many pilot candidates may think twice about entering such a cyclical industry. Many furloughed pilots will return, but some may pursue other opportunities.A shortage of pilots in the US, the world’s largest aviation market, has already led to airlines cutting schedules and having to boost pay and bonuses to staff their operations.The pilot shortage in the United States started making itself felt in the second half of 2021 as carriers ramped up operations to take advantage of returning travel demand after the Covid-19 pandemic.Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn