WTO seeks fish and vaccine deals as war ignites trade tensions

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) will host ministers from across the globe this month with the aim of striking deals on fish and vaccines, testing the world’s ability to set trade rules at a time of mounting tensions.Global trade discord, Covid-19 and the crippling of its dispute settlement mechanism had already weakened the Geneva-based body, which was twice forced to cancel the ministerial conference due to the pandemic.The normally biennial meeting, last held over four years ago, will now take place after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered commodity price hikes and food export bans and China’s zero-Covid policy exacerbates worldwide supply chain difficulties.Global trade is meanwhile set to slow this year, with the Ukraine war adding to uncertainty. Against that backdrop, the ministers will seek to conclude 20 years of negotiations to reduce fishing subsidies, forge a deal on fairer sharing of Covid-19 vaccines, push agricultural trade reform and set a path for reform of the WTO.Dmitry Grozoubinski, director of the Geneva Trade Platform, said there was a sense that the meeting, dubbed MC12, was “a little bit cursed”.“This was always going to be a ministerial with modest outcomes at best. The invasion has made things harder, but things were hardly easy beforehand,” he said.Several members have said they will not negotiate with Russia, while Moscow would be expected to block any attempt by Ukraine’s allies to formulate a ministerial statement on the crisis, such as its impact on food.“In the background there is the possible total disruption from the Ukraine war,” said Peter Van den Bossche, director of studies at the World Trade Institute. “I have no doubt Russia will demonstrate that, without it, no progress can be made.”Ministers will ideally sign a declaration on trade’s role in current and future pandemics at the meeting but a dispute over how to redress vaccine inequity has dominated discussions even as the coronavirus crisis has eased.Developing countries have sought since 2020 a waiver of intellectual property (IP) rights for vaccines and other Covid-19 treatments.It is not yet clear if a vaccine compromise forged by India, South Africa, the EU and the United States will transform into a full agreement.At the same time, members are negotiating a deal to end subsidies for fishing fleets, a potential landmark deal to reverse a dramatic decline in fish stocks.One unresolved issues is the transition period for developing countries. Many say this should be five to seven years, but some suggest as much as 25 years. From past experience, the prospects are not bright. The WTO has only managed one update of its global rules in its 27-year history, the red-tape cutting Trade Facilitation Agreement.Pascal Lamy, WTO chief from 2005-2013, said the WTO’s rules were lagging behind in terms of addressing present obstacles to trade.“WTO rules today reflect the world where obstacles to trade were what they were 30-40 years ago — tariffs, subsidies, quantitative restrictions, etc.These classical obstacles to trade are less and less relevant,” he said.Still, global trade hit a record of $28.5tn in 2021, 13% above pre-pandemic levels, much of its based on existing WTO rules.“In that sense, the WTO remains relevant, but it needs to be more relevant, with new rules,” said the World Trade Institute’s Van den Bossche. — Reuters