Lula keeps lead over Bolsonaro in new Brazil presidential election

A new poll ahead of Brazil’s presidential election in October shows former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintaining a significant lead over Jair Bolsonaro, but the right-wing incumbent is gaining ground.Forty-seven per cent of those surveyed by the Datafolha consulting firm said that they intended to vote for Lula, the 76-year-old leftist leader, in the first round election on October 2, the same result as last month’s poll.That represents a 15-point lead over the far-right Bolsonaro (32%), which is slightly narrower than the 18-point gap last month, but a significant jump over the 21-point spread in May.Lula’s strong showing in the poll means there is a small chance he could ultimately receive over 50% in the first round, avoiding a run-off against 67-year-old Bolsonaro.If the election does advance to a second round, on October 30, the poll shows Lula beating Bolsonaro with 54% of the vote.The two candidates, running in the most polarised presidential race in decades, are far ahead of any third-party challengers – although centre-left Ciro Gomes received 7% in the poll.Though the two front-runners have been campaigning for months, the official launch was on Tuesday.Bolsonaro started with a rally in Juiz de Fora, where he was stabbed in 2018, while Lula, a former union leader, chose a car factory in Sao Bernardo do Campo as his symbolic backdrop.Datafolha said it interviewed 5,744 people between last Tuesday and this Thursday in 281 Brazilian cities and its results include a margin of error of +/- 2 points.