Qatar’s public debt will decline over the next four years from 45.5% this year to 38.7% of GDP in 2026, researcher FocusEconomics has said in a report.
Next year, the country’s public debt has been estimated to be 39.9%, 40.8% in 2024 and 39.7% (2025).
The country’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of the GDP) will be 8.9% this year, 6.1% (2023), 3.1% (2024), 3.6% (2025) and 4.2% (2026).
Current account balance (as a percentage of the GDP) has been estimated to be 20% this year, 15.6% (2023), 12.2% (2024), 11.9% (2025) and 11.5% (2026).
According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s merchandise trade balance will be $81.1bn in 2022, $79.3bn (2023), $64.4bn (2024), $67.8bn (2025) and $70.4bn (2026).
The country’s GDP, the researcher said, will scale up from $217bn this year to $248bn in 2026.
Next year, it will be $216bn, $222bn in 2024 and $235bn in 2025.
GDP per capita, the researcher has estimated, will total $81,151 this year, $82,540 (2023), $85,790 (2024), $91,627 (2025) and $97,544 (2026).
FocusEconomics noted the country’s economy should have accelerated in the second quarter (Q2). The non-oil private-sector
PMI averaged at the highest level on record in the quarter, aided by the vanishing impact of Covid-19.
The tourism industry made a particularly strong recovery in the quarter, with visitor arrivals up 500% year on year in June. Moreover, energy output increased in annual terms in April and June, which should have more than offset a decline in May.
In addition, higher oil and gas prices buoyed government coffers and exports: Q2’s trade surplus was the largest since 2014.
Turning to Q3, PMI data for July suggests strong — albeit easing — momentum in the non-oil economy.
In other news, diversification efforts have taken a step forward in recent weeks.
In August, the government announced the construction of two new solar plants and a ‘blue ammonia’ factory: ammonia could be used as a climate-friendly fuel.
FocusEconomics said the GDP outlook for 2022 is upbeat. Elevated energy prices and the reduced impact of the pandemic will be key drivers.
Moreover, the FIFA World Cup will boost tourism towards the end of the year. Increased trade with Arab neighbours will also be a contributor.
However, rising interest rates could take the edge off of demand. FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.5% rise in GDP during 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% growth in 2023.
Inflation fell to 5% in July from 5.4% in June.
The Qatar Central Bank hiked the lending rate by 50 basis points and the deposit rate by 75 basis points in July.
Inflation is expected to average roughly double its 2021 level this year due to recovering demand and higher commodity prices.
That said, price pressures will likely ebb from now until end-2022. FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2023.
Next year, the country’s public debt has been estimated to be 39.9%, 40.8% in 2024 and 39.7% (2025).
The country’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of the GDP) will be 8.9% this year, 6.1% (2023), 3.1% (2024), 3.6% (2025) and 4.2% (2026).
Current account balance (as a percentage of the GDP) has been estimated to be 20% this year, 15.6% (2023), 12.2% (2024), 11.9% (2025) and 11.5% (2026).
According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s merchandise trade balance will be $81.1bn in 2022, $79.3bn (2023), $64.4bn (2024), $67.8bn (2025) and $70.4bn (2026).
The country’s GDP, the researcher said, will scale up from $217bn this year to $248bn in 2026.
Next year, it will be $216bn, $222bn in 2024 and $235bn in 2025.
GDP per capita, the researcher has estimated, will total $81,151 this year, $82,540 (2023), $85,790 (2024), $91,627 (2025) and $97,544 (2026).
FocusEconomics noted the country’s economy should have accelerated in the second quarter (Q2). The non-oil private-sector
PMI averaged at the highest level on record in the quarter, aided by the vanishing impact of Covid-19.
The tourism industry made a particularly strong recovery in the quarter, with visitor arrivals up 500% year on year in June. Moreover, energy output increased in annual terms in April and June, which should have more than offset a decline in May.
In addition, higher oil and gas prices buoyed government coffers and exports: Q2’s trade surplus was the largest since 2014.
Turning to Q3, PMI data for July suggests strong — albeit easing — momentum in the non-oil economy.
In other news, diversification efforts have taken a step forward in recent weeks.
In August, the government announced the construction of two new solar plants and a ‘blue ammonia’ factory: ammonia could be used as a climate-friendly fuel.
FocusEconomics said the GDP outlook for 2022 is upbeat. Elevated energy prices and the reduced impact of the pandemic will be key drivers.
Moreover, the FIFA World Cup will boost tourism towards the end of the year. Increased trade with Arab neighbours will also be a contributor.
However, rising interest rates could take the edge off of demand. FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.5% rise in GDP during 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% growth in 2023.
Inflation fell to 5% in July from 5.4% in June.
The Qatar Central Bank hiked the lending rate by 50 basis points and the deposit rate by 75 basis points in July.
Inflation is expected to average roughly double its 2021 level this year due to recovering demand and higher commodity prices.
That said, price pressures will likely ebb from now until end-2022. FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2023.
